Page 315 - Bank-Muamalat_Annual-Report-2023

ANNUAL REPORT 2023
OUR NUMBERS

47. FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES (CONT’D.)
(a) Credit risk (cont’d.)

(iii) Analysis of inputs to the ECL model under multiple economic scenarios (cont’d.)
31 December 2022

Assigned 2022 2023 2024
Key Variable ECL Scenario Probabilities (Actual) (Forecast) (Forecast)
(%)
Consumer Price Index (Y-o-Y%) Base case 42.54% 2.00% 2.50% 1.80%

Upside 25.45% 2.00% 1.40% 0.40%
Downside 32.01% 2.00% 3.10% 2.50%
Unemployment Rate (%) Base case 42.54% 4.80% 4.40% 3.80%
Upside 25.45% 4.80% 4.00% 3.20%
Downside 32.01% 4.80% 4.80% 4.10%
Overnight Policy Rate (%) Base case 42.54% 1.75% 1.75% 2.00%

Upside 25.45% 1.75% 1.75% 2.50%
Downside 32.01% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
Private Consumption (YOY %) Base case 42.54% 11.60% 0.60% 11.00%
Upside 25.45% 11.60% 2.28% 15.79%
Downside 32.01% 11.60% -1.46% 9.92%

Public Consumption (YOY %) Base case 42.54% 9.00% 5.90% 0.50%
Upside 25.45% 9.00% 7.20% 7.40%
Downside 32.01% 9.00% 3.00% 0.20%
Gold Price (USD/oz) Base case 42.54% 1756.66 1700.00 1570.00
Upside 25.45% 1756.66 1670.00 1550.00
Downside 32.01% 1756.66 1950.00 1720.00

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